16 Conclusions on England losing the Euro 2024 final: Southgate out, Kane abysmal, Rice poor, drop Walker

Matt Stead 15 Jul 2024 3:14 AM

England striker Harry Kane, manager Gareth Southgate and forward Cole Palmer during and after the Euro 2024 final

England came so close yet so far again

Gareth Southgate and England losing by “fine margins” again feels careless. Harry Kane was abysmal, Declan Rice was poor and Kyle Walker must be dropped.

1) “Knockout football is fine margins. When you have spells, you have to make them count,” was the response to heartbreak in extra-time of the 2018 World Cup semi-final.

“Games are decided on fine margins and it was with them tonight, not us,” was the refrain after losing on penalties in the Euro 2021 final.

“They’ve played really well against a top team and fine margins at both ends have ended up deciding the game,” was the reaction to a quarter-final exit at the 2022 World Cup.

Those setbacks came against Croatia, Italy and France, the best teams England faced in each tournament increasingly less coincidentally providing their last and most enduring obstacle. Spain overcame them all on their way to a victory they entirely merited in the final to win a record fourth European Championship they wholly deserved.

It is difficult to convey the difference more starkly between a group capable of making that final step and one which cannot quite put one leg in front of the other fast enough when the finish line appears on the horizon. How ironic then that the fine margin on this occasion might well have been the kneecap hairs of the excellent John Stones in the 86th minute, striding out just far enough to play Mikel Oyarzabal barely onside.

But that is the problem with constantly blaming fine margins: England had yet again allowed the game to drift from them in such a way that when the decisive moment did come, it was increasingly unlikely to fall in their favour. In the quarter of an hour leading up to Cole Palmer’s equaliser they had three shots to four and 56.4% possession; in the 15 minutes after, they had zero shots to two and 23% of the ball, were just about to bring on Kieran Trippier and Conor Gallagher to consolidate that negative position and then conceded a goal they could not muster a reply to as they had no tangible foundation to build from, nor the requisite time remaining to construct one.

“As always in these games, it comes down to fine margins,” Southgate said once more after the final whistle in Berlin. And perhaps in the isolated context of both this final and any of those previous three exits he was not wrong. But once is misfortune; four times in succession over eight years is naivety which should prompt a ruthless but necessary change.

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2) “Well, we have to get the ball off them first,” was Southgate’s disarming answer when posed a question which had come to define England’s unfathomable progress at this European Championship: could facing a more attacking, possession-oriented team suit them better than those deploying space-starving, deep defensive blocks?

“It’s not as simple as us having the ball and making them run,” he added. “I mean, they press very, very well, so we’re going to have to be exceptional with the ball, and we’re going to have to be exceptional without it.”

The grand plan probably wasn’t Kobbie Mainoo taking the kick-off and playing it straight back to Jordan Pickford, who proceeded to launch it out for a goal kick. The Manchester United midfielder did not have another touch until the ninth minute as Spain settled into a predictable holding pattern of dominating the ball and looking for any gaps to exploit. It was a tone England helped set with their very first action.

3) Maybe it was a ploy all along, allowing Southgate’s side to showcase the only actual consistent strength they have displayed all summer.

The monumental Luke Shaw gamble – not since Christoph Kramer for Germany in 2014 had a player made his first start at a single Euros or World Cup in the final – seemed to be paying off as Lamine Yamal had no room in which to operate early on. Marc Guehi read one Nico Williams cross with the outside of the boot impeccably to clear. But there was a dramatic irony within the perfect John Stones tackle on the dangerous Athletic Bilbao forward in England’s area as Kyle Walker left his Manchester City teammate exposed by wandering too far up his side and subsequently failing to block a pass down the line. It would become something of a theme.

4) This must be the final tournament performance of Walker. He has been phenomenal for England in the past but in a system seemingly designed specifically to accentuate the strengths of defenders while nullifying the supremely gifted forwards ahead of them, the right-back’s weaknesses have been laid bare with uncomfortable regularity.

His speed was once a virtue but it has become a crutch. Walker’s positioning for the winner was nonsensical as he almost arrogantly afforded Marc Cucurella that entire flank to attack, incorrectly assuming he could make up sufficient ground to block the pinpoint cross. And even going forward it took away from England’s play: at one point a 50-yard run ostensibly offered Bukayo Saka an overlap but it actually restricted the Arsenal player’s space and removed the option of him taking the backtracking Cucurella on to cross from the outside. Walker knows only one move when he crosses the halfway line and he lacks the nuance to know when and when not to use it.

While it was once true that Walker was the best, most rational choice of myriad right-backs England have available to them, it is no longer. That is the most obvious position which needs permanent rewiring when the squad reconvenes.

5) Some might pinpoint the centre-forward role as another in need of a rethink but realistically Harry Kane has at least another couple of years as a certain starter in this team – provided he is fit.

Southgate’s post-match declaration that his captain “has not quite got up to the level that we’d have all hoped” was as pointed as his substitution on the hour. Before this summer the manager barely ever took a properly functioning Kane off when it mattered; at these Euros he has been substituted in five of seven games, only one of which England were winning at the time.

This was another actively detrimental performance in which he offered nothing. Already inhibited by his obvious physical problems, Kane was booked in the 25th minute and immediately went from winning none of his duels to barely even engaging in any for fear of a second yellow. England had no out ball and were routinely penned in as everything that went past the halfway line did not stick.

Despite not looking anything even close to fresh all tournament Kane has played more minutes than all but five players, all of whom are teammates. England’s captain was dreadful and has held them back all tournament.

6) It felt like Kane sidestepping into an offside position to give Stones absolutely no viable passing options after he dribbled 40 yards through the Spain press would be the obvious low point. Then came the Bayern Munich forward’s response to a fine second-half move involving Walker, Saka and Phil Foden.

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The truth will soon emerge regarding the back injury which scuppered the end of his debut season with Bayern and has quite clearly been carried in some form into this tournament. But that cannot entirely legislate for such a jarring inability to instinctively sense danger as a striker. It was amateurish.

Kane was substituted about a minute later. While it was almost certainly not in direct response to that specific moment, it can only have reinforced Southgate’s thinking that England needed something different – or even just something at all.

7) Foden and Declan Rice were both caught in possession in their own half within the opening half an hour as that need to be “exceptional” on and off the ball was not exhibited by some of England’s most experienced players early on.

Rice had an especially difficult game, frequently rushing passes when England needed their midfield in particular to exude calm and control. Kobbie Mainoo was equally wasteful but the player six years older and £100m more expensive inevitably shoulders the bulk of the responsibility when it goes wrong, fair or otherwise.

“In the end they haven’t been able to keep the ball well enough. We invited more pressure. It’s something we know we have to be better at,” said Southgate. Not after this game, mind. That was following the Euro 2021 final, in which Rice completed 75.8% of his 33 passes.

“I think today we didn’t keep possession of the ball quite well enough, especially when we had defended well, you have moments where you have to get out of the pressure and we weren’t able to do that,” is what Southgate said three years later, with Rice’s completion rate of 77.5% from 40 passes certainly “better” but not nearly better enough.

8) With that said, England were in decent shape by half-time with the scores level. The half ended with Jude Bellingham – who finished with six tackles – dispossessing Dani Carvajal and setting up a Kane half-chance, before Foden mustered their first shot on target with a back-post volley from a deep free-kick.

England had been impressive out of possession and Spain had created nothing of note. Southgate’s side were showing signs of being able to grow into a big game rather than shrinking from it. And then news filtered through that Rodri had sustained an injury and would not make it out for the second half. England had to sense a moment.

9) Within 69 seconds of the restart they reached their climax. Spain curiously avoided the tactic of instantly lumping it from one keeper to another, instead keeping the ball, pulling England out of shape and capitalising mercilessly.

Carvajal’s first-time flick around the corner unlocked everything, catching Shaw on the wrong side of Yamal for the first time and putting England squarely on the back foot. Guehi had to commit to watching the inside run, Alvaro Morata occupied Stones and Walker ended up shadowing Dani Olmo. It left Williams in acres of space and his finish was flawless.

From the kick-offs which opened both halves, England had two touches before the ball went out of play: Mainoo to Pickford in the first for a Spain goal kick; a Guehi header and a Saka block in the second for a Spain goal. The plan as it was would have to be scrapped yet again.

10) Not before a wave of pressure England had to withstand to retain any hope of winning. In the eight minutes after their goal Spain had four unanswered shots, Williams was again left unmarked another couple of times in dangerous areas, Olmo should have scored and Stones cleared a Morata effort from the vicinity of the line shortly after being booked for a foul on Rodri’s replacement, Martin Zubimendi.

England were being dismantled in the press and Spain’s rest defence was suffocating them.

11) The severity of the situation was summed up by Pickford’s reaction to a stunning save from Yamal, who had been released down the right by Olmo after some quick interplay from those irresistible Spain forwards.

Instead of existentially raging at his defenders for forcing him into some goalkeeping, he simply rose to his feet, nodded and raised his hands aloft in acknowledgement that the attack had come from his long ball which invited more pressure.

But it was a brilliant stop, with Pickford keeping Lamal out again before the eventual winner. The Everton keeper could do precious little about either goal but otherwise commanded his box with some fine punches and catches, while playing a crucial part in the equaliser. He remains one of England’s greatest ever tournament players and would have cracked the top three if this performance had been adorned with the silver it perhaps deserved.

12) Even England’s goal came from a Spain shot. Pickford saved from Oyarzabal and immediately rolled the ball out to Bellingham, who did brilliantly to bring in Palmer. His quick ball out to Saka stretched Spain in a way they hadn’t experienced all game and his pass back inside for Bellingham was matched both by a lay-off weighted sublimely and a finish weighed up with remarkable precision and power.

Palmer had been on the pitch for three minutes, replacing Mainoo not long after Kane made way for Ollie Watkins. Another goal from a substitute dispelled any lingering sense that Southgate’s coaching deficiencies still lay in that department, even if it does feel as though the majority of his changes throughout this summer have either been a) fixes to his own broken starting line-ups, or b) decisions made out of desperation when losing, in the knowledge this might be his last tournament.

13) It was sensational from Bellingham, first resisting Cucurella and then getting to the ball ahead of Zubimendi, showing enough energy to make it into the box in between.

Moved out to the left, he put in the sort of disciplined performance many suggested might have been beyond him. Those half-dozen tackles, the Palmer assist and his glorious spin to evade Carvajal, sending his Real Madrid teammate crashing into Olmo before shooting just wide, were flashes of potentially pivotal excellence

There were some errant passes and even a stubborn insistence on doing everything himself at times, but it was born from a determination to be brave on the ball in the face of a daunting opponent. The one he threaded through for Watkins with a couple of minutes remaining, which the Aston Villa forward could not quite gather in his stride like he did in the semi-final, summed it up neatly. Things might have been different if more players were on the Bellingham wavelength.

14) Gary Neville should probably abstain from offering opinions on the Spanish national team at this point. His “it’s okay but there’s no goals in it” assessment of their starting line-up for a 2022 World Cup game against Costa Rica they proceeded to win 7-0 was always going to take some beating. Then came the point that “there’s something just missing from Spain that makes you feel like they’re not going to go all the way” at Euro 2024, with Cucurella pinpointed as a prime example.

For those who had watched the majority of his Chelsea career, it was an entirely fair claim. Even Cucurella’s marked improvement in the couple of months before the end of the season hardly pointed to him becoming a European champion for his country. But he more than earned his medal.

The cross for the winner was sumptuous and the housery in winning a free-kick against Saka in the second minute of stoppage time was as good as anything his more experienced compatriots in that field might have conjured. It masterfully extinguished the last hope England had.

15) England had three shots in the seven minutes after Oyarzabal’s goal up to the final whistle, and they all came in one attack. Rice forced a save with one header and put the other one over, while Olmo cleared an effort from Guehi off the line in between.

It took Southgate’s side until the 90th minute of their seventh match, two of which had gone to extra-time, to deliver an actually competent corner from which they almost scored. Their set-piece drop-off has been ridiculous.

16) Southgate predictably and entirely understandably offered no thoughts on his future after the game. It would be unreasonable to expect that decision to be reached, let alone communicated at a time of immense personal and professional pain.

But it feels as though there is only one viable conclusion. This summer has hurt Southgate. His body language has conveyed as much and his words have filled in the blanks. For all the past talk of “fine margins”, two different words have encapsulated both this tournament and the general shift in the relationship between the England national team and its supporters: “external noise”.

That is how Southgate and his players have characterised all criticism, from constructive to caustic, of a bizarre Euros. England were within seconds of elimination in the last 16 by Slovakia – a result which would have taken the call out of the manager’s hands – and have not played consistently well for any of their seven games, relying exclusively on “resilience” followed by individual brilliance. They have been leading for 133 minutes, losing for 122 and drawing for 467. In terms of moments they have been almost unmatched but scratching beyond that surface has been an awkwardly revealing exercise tactically and philosophically.

These players can be better. They can be worse and Southgate will have nodded more sagely than most at the way Belgium, Italy, Portugal and France in particular have painstakingly disgraced themselves in the name of proving that international tournament management is a ludicrously unforgiving arena and deep talent pools alone do not guarantee long, serene swims to trophies. But the overriding point is that it feels as though the time has come for England to explore something different.

Southgate seriously contemplated his future after the 2022 World Cup and perhaps that was the end of this England team’s cycle, considering the squad churn since. He said before this tournament that “if we don’t win, I probably won’t be here anymore”. Coming so apparently close could tempt him into staying again for another push towards the 2026 World Cup but he would have to accept that for most people, anything other than winning the whole thing would represent failure.

If he does choose to stay – and do not doubt that the FA will leave the call up to him, as his tournament record warrants – then the pressure to oversee actual tangible growth in terms of playing style and winning trophies will be immense, a level never before seen in an already abnormally intense and scrutinised managerial position. There would be no middle ground, no in between, no grey area, no caveats.

Southgate could not possibly blame “fine margins” again or rue England’s “use of the ball” in the aftermath of yet another defeat to elite opposition. But the suspicion persists that he cannot quite rectify those problems either, and at some point the perennial chase will have to stop.

F365 Says 16 Conclusions

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