Arsenal one-in-five title chances destroyed thanks to ‘record’ red cards
The media is pretending that Arsenal’s red cards are the reason why they won’t win the Premier League title.
The trouble with Arsenal…
‘THE odds are already stacked against Arsenal to lift the Premier League title this season – owing to their disciplinary record,’ begins The Sun‘s top story.
Mediawatch would argue that the odds are already stacked against Arsenal to lift the Premier League title this season – owing to them being up against a team that have won six of the last seven titles.
But Arsenal’s indiscipline is clearly the subject de jour so The Sun are jumping on…
Should they pick up another this term, it will be Arsenal’s 108th red card in the Prem era – a joint-record alongside Everton.
And it may well spell the end for their hopes of knocking Manchester City off their perch and claiming a first English league title crown since the Invincibles of 2004.
First, let’s deal with that ‘record’. There are only six clubs who have been ever-present in the Premier League, so it’s not exactly remarkable that two of them – Everton and Arsenal – have the worst disciplinary record.
And no, this ‘record’ does not ‘spell the end of their hopes of knocking Manchester City off their perch’; they are four points behind after eight games.
Apparently, ‘the correlation between the number of red cards and chances of finishing on top of the pile are clear for all to see, especially in recent times’.
Hmmm. We think the correlation between the number of points claimed and chances of finishing on top of the pile are clear for all to see. But do carry on…
Since 2012/13, only TWO teams have picked up three or more red cards and went on to be victorious: Chelsea’s four dismissals in 2014/15 and Leicester who saw three in 2015/16.
Between 2016 and 2024, no winner has picked up more than two.
Well that’s conclusive. If you ignore the fact that – last season for example – Manchester City and Arsenal picked up exactly the same number of red cards. Almost like that statistic is largely irrelevant. And in 22/23, Arsenal actually picked up fewer red cards (none) than champions Manchester City (one).
It’s almost like Manchester City usually win the Premier League because they are the best team in the Premier League.
In conclusion, ‘in the modern era of Premier League football then, good discipline usually leads to glory – something Arteta needs to defy in the remaining 30 league games this season’.
In the modern era of Premier League football, Manchester City usually win. That is all.
The joy of Six
‘Red cards are proving costly for Mikel Arteta’s side and he has to address the problem, just as Arsène Wenger did when his team were contenders,’ writes Martin Samuel in The Times.
Which would make rather more sense if Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal had not won the Premier League in 2001/02 after picking up six red cards, with three coming in the first seven games.
But Samuel claims that that was a different kind of Arsenal team:
This was a group with remarkable resolve. They went a man down at Anfield when Giovanni van Bronckhorst was dismissed after 36 minutes, with the match tied 0-0, and scored the next two goals, eventually winning 2-1. There is no evidence the current team has similar resolve in adversity.
This was also a group that could win the title with 87 points; this group of Arsenal players came second with 89 points last season despite apparently having no resolve. Which is some kind of miracle.
Challenge Liverpool
Over to the MailOnline to be told ‘Arsenal’s new damning title chances after Bournemouth defeat as supercomputer tips Liverpool to challenge Man City’.
Yes, it’s pretty ‘damning’ that such a costly defeat has destroyed their one-in-five chance of winning the Premier League, which has now dropped to one-in-nine.
As for Liverpool being ‘tipped to challenge Man City’…the supercomputer reckons they have a roughly one-in-eight chance. It’s ON.
Rip it up and start again…
The clash between Liverpool and Chelsea was not nearly as contentious as you might have thought if you saw various headlines on Monday morning.
This one from the Express is a belter, beautifully leaning into the Arsenal fan conspiracy nonsense:
Arne Slot rips into Liverpool vs Chelsea officials as Arsenal reference made
The problem? It’s absolute bollocks.
This is the fuming Arne Slot ‘ripping’ into the officials:
“They’re just as biased as I am” 😅
Liverpool boss Arne Slot says more decisions could have gone their way today against Chelsea 🗣 pic.twitter.com/CvRDiLSHfb
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) October 20, 2024
He literally said “it’s not that important” in a conversation variously described here as a ‘referee rant’ and ‘frustrated rant’, all while laughing and smiling like some kind of psychopath.
Keeping things regular
‘At 23, and into his fifth season as a regular Anfield first-teamer, it is surprising that Scouser Jones is yet to win a full England cap’, writes Dave Kidd in The Sun.
Pesky fact: Jones has started 51 of 160 Premier League games over those five seasons.
It’s not surprising.